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The Lab

Equity · Stocks · Started Jan 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.6%
Max Drawdown
53.4%
Trades
786
Win Trades
43.0%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
15.9%

Trend-following Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202163.068.85.31.50.73.90.40.51.52.62.3-49.168.4
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/21/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age69 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades786
# Profitable338
% Profitable43.0%
Avg trade duration9.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown53.4%
drawdown periodNov 23, 2021 - Dec 31, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)9.6%
Avg win$1,536
Avg loss$1,070

Ratios

W:L ratio1.08
Sharpe Ratio0.32
Sortino Ratio0.51
Calmar Ratio0.91

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life101.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-29.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)10.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity98.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss82.5%
Chance of 20% account loss74.5%
Chance of 30% account loss50.0%
Chance of 40% account loss38.5%
Chance of 50% account loss24.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)12.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)2.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated5.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,070
Avg Win$1,536
# Winners338
Sum Trade PL (losers)$479,455
Sum Trade PL (winners)$519,234
Num Months Winners11
# Losers448
% Winners43.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table69

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)566.97
Avg Position Time (hrs)9.45
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago1719

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.47
Daily leverage (max)2.60

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta-0.07
Treynor Index-0.46

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-40.12
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.54
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.34
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.23
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.75
SD1.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df18
t0.79
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.97
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.17
Sortino ratio2.40
Upside Potential Ratio3.56
Upside part of mean1.11
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD1.14
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms10
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.75
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion1.19
Covariance-0.01
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.78
Mean Square Error1.51
DF error17
t(b)-0.06
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.73
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-11.90
Jensen alpha (a)0.78
Mean0.34
SD0.82
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df18
t0.53
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio0.94
Upside Potential Ratio2.09
Upside part of mean0.76
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.71
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms10
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.82
Covariance0.01
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.70
DF error17
t(b)0.24
p(b)0.46
t(a)0.38
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.80
Treynor index (mean / b)2.07
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
VaR(95%)0.30
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.37
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
Mean0.49
SD0.55
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.88
df419
t1.11
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.42
Sortino ratio1.46
Upside Potential Ratio4.39
Upside part of mean1.46
Downside part of mean-0.98
Upside SD0.44
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms106
N negative terms314
N of observations420
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.49
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.55
Covariance-0.01
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.52
Mean Square Error0.31
DF error418
t(b)-0.95
p(b)0.83
t(a)1.19
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.39
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.69
Jensen alpha (a)0.52
Mean0.34
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df419
t0.79
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.17
Sortino ratio0.93
Upside Potential Ratio3.80
Upside part of mean1.38
Downside part of mean-1.04
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms106
N negative terms314
N of observations420
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance-0.01
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.37
Mean Square Error0.29
DF error418
t(b)-0.86
p(b)0.80
t(a)0.85
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.37
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.41
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.30
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6764222377623552
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.89779438272239e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations19
Minimum0.72
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum2.43
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.35
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.72
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.55
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-6.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.04
Number of observations420
Minimum0.77
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.31
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low49
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high97
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.96
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.48
Quartile 10.48
Median0.48
Quartile 30.48
Maximum0.48
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.49
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.49
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.37
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.92
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.42
Expected Shortfall (regression method)4.88
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-402018912
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)38
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.50
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.45
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.94
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.23
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.50
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.44
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.91
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.69
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.73
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 551 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ISIG long4000Dec 30, 2021Dec 31, 2021($33,445)
LCID long2000Dec 13, 2021Dec 13, 2021$600
BNTX long200Dec 13, 2021Dec 13, 2021($738)
MRNA long500Dec 13, 2021Dec 13, 2021($660)
UVXY long5000Dec 13, 2021Dec 13, 2021($905)
MRNA long200Dec 13, 2021Dec 13, 2021($706)
UVXY long2000Dec 13, 2021Dec 13, 2021($595)
NVAX long250Dec 13, 2021Dec 13, 2021($683)
LCID long800Dec 13, 2021Dec 13, 2021($531)
SGMA long10000Dec 10, 2021Dec 10, 2021$17,935
PIK long15000Dec 10, 2021Dec 10, 2021($755)
PTPI long30000Dec 10, 2021Dec 10, 2021($5,454)
AVCT long35000Dec 10, 2021Dec 10, 2021($7,928)
CXM long7000Dec 10, 2021Dec 10, 2021($1,184)
AERC long7000Dec 9, 2021Dec 10, 2021($3,762)
AVCT long20000Dec 10, 2021Dec 10, 2021($1,805)
CXM long5000Dec 10, 2021Dec 10, 2021($1,858)
MITC long8000Dec 9, 2021Dec 9, 2021($1,742)
MITC long20000Dec 9, 2021Dec 9, 2021$3,380
IINN long700Dec 9, 2021Dec 9, 2021($514)
ISIG long10000Dec 9, 2021Dec 9, 2021($9,005)
CIEN long250Dec 9, 2021Dec 9, 2021($35)
AERC long10000Dec 9, 2021Dec 9, 2021($10,573)
ISIG long1100Dec 9, 2021Dec 9, 2021($7,977)
HRTX long1500Dec 9, 2021Dec 9, 2021($374)
ENSC long10500Dec 9, 2021Dec 9, 2021($7,344)
NVEI long400Dec 9, 2021Dec 9, 2021($328)
ENSC long1500Dec 9, 2021Dec 9, 2021($365)
PPSI long600Dec 9, 2021Dec 9, 2021($275)
HRTX long1200Dec 9, 2021Dec 9, 2021($230)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.