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Trade2Short

Equity · Stocks · Started Nov 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
7.4%
Max Drawdown
8.5%
Trades
931
Win Trades
53.5%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
9.9%

Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-0.47.16.7
20218.926.75.2-1.72.4-3.21.21.3-0.2-1.80.00.042.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/21/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age71 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades931
# Profitable498
% Profitable53.5%
Avg trade duration4.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown8.5%
drawdown periodSept 22, 2021 - Oct 07, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)7.4%
Avg win$193
Avg loss$148

Ratios

W:L ratio1.50
Sharpe Ratio0.57
Sortino Ratio1.47
Calmar Ratio6.70

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life116.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-66.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)7.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)8.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity9.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss2.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated43.9%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$148
Avg Win$193
# Winners498
Sum Trade PL (losers)$64,143
Sum Trade PL (winners)$96,168
Num Months Winners7
# Losers433
% Winners53.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table71

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)296.90
Avg Position Time (hrs)4.95
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago1811

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.77
Daily leverage (max)5.26

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index-1.77

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-11.13
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.87
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.61
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.44
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.09

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.33
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.40
df17
t1.80
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.07
Sortino ratio13.48
Upside Potential Ratio15.48
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms12
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.01
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.37
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error16
t(b)-0.48
p(b)0.56
t(a)1.79
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.37
Mean0.30
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.40
df17
t1.80
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.07
Sortino ratio12.35
Upside Potential Ratio14.35
Upside part of mean0.35
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms12
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.01
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.34
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error16
t(b)-0.44
p(b)0.55
t(a)1.77
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.74
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.59
Jensen alpha (a)0.34
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.30
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.97
df404
t2.45
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.55
Sortino ratio5.25
Upside Potential Ratio10.18
Upside part of mean0.59
Downside part of mean-0.28
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms119
N negative terms286
N of observations405
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error403
t(b)-0.51
p(b)0.69
t(a)2.49
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)-23.96
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
Mean0.29
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.95
df404
t2.43
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.53
Sortino ratio5.00
Upside Potential Ratio9.92
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms119
N negative terms286
N of observations405
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion0.29
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error403
t(b)-0.49
p(b)0.69
t(a)2.46
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)-24.04
Jensen alpha (a)0.30
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.15
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.04
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6802986604953600
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.46850018190209e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations18
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-7.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations405
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low61
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high76
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.26
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.02
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations24
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high0.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-370978656
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)15
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.43
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.39
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)24.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs24.08
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.22
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.41
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.38
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.70
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs11.23
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal21.19
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 605 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
FWONK short189Oct 7, 2021Oct 7, 2021($85)
WH short128Oct 7, 2021Oct 7, 2021($64)
TWNK short572Oct 7, 2021Oct 7, 2021($165)
GLNG short752Oct 7, 2021Oct 7, 2021($261)
FWONK short189Oct 6, 2021Oct 6, 2021($31)
WH short128Oct 6, 2021Oct 6, 2021($137)
TWNK short572Oct 6, 2021Oct 6, 2021($251)
FWONK short189Oct 5, 2021Oct 5, 2021($40)
GLNG short752Oct 5, 2021Oct 5, 2021$115
WH short128Oct 5, 2021Oct 5, 2021($67)
TWNK short572Oct 5, 2021Oct 5, 2021($257)
WH short128Oct 4, 2021Oct 4, 2021$12
GLNG short752Oct 4, 2021Oct 4, 2021$183
TWNK short572Oct 4, 2021Oct 4, 2021($45)
FWONK short189Oct 4, 2021Oct 4, 2021$123
FWONK short189Oct 1, 2021Oct 1, 2021($4)
GLNG short752Oct 1, 2021Oct 1, 2021($163)
TWNK short572Oct 1, 2021Oct 1, 2021($34)
WH short128Oct 1, 2021Oct 1, 2021($253)
WH short128Sep 30, 2021Sep 30, 2021$124
TWNK short572Sep 30, 2021Sep 30, 2021$121
TWNK short572Sep 29, 2021Sep 29, 2021($108)
WH short128Sep 29, 2021Sep 29, 2021$92
WH short128Sep 28, 2021Sep 28, 2021($62)
WH short128Sep 27, 2021Sep 27, 2021($70)
HGV short203Sep 24, 2021Sep 24, 2021($14)
SRPT short110Sep 24, 2021Sep 24, 2021($43)
AVTR short228Sep 22, 2021Sep 22, 2021($39)
TWNK short582Sep 22, 2021Sep 22, 2021($52)
HGV short214Sep 16, 2021Sep 16, 2021$35

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.