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OptionsTradingInsight

Options · Options · Started Oct 2020

Trades Own Strategy BrokerTransmit

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-10.9%
Max Drawdown
84.7%
Trades
951
Win Trades
29.9%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
22.5%

About this strategy

(1) Trade options on stocks with very high momentum
(2) Buy Cheap options costing $1200 to $1600 per position
(3) maintain risk management via position sizing, not via stops
(4) hold a max of 10 positions risking 10% of account size from the point of reset
(5) reset ( sell all ) positions when one of the positions attains the profit target, typical profit target is 10x
(6) stay out of the market during down trends

Directional Bets

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-26.229.8-4.7-8.7
2021115.443.6-11.111.6-3.9-6.5-15.4-0.80.0-11.0-19.868.2
202213.2-0.37.6-7.4-4.2-1.1-11.62.1-5.0-8.8-5.2-5.0-24.9
20231.1-3.9-5.419.720.8-1.06.6-11.3-11.1-12.1-20.3-16.9-35.7
20243.947.0-32.71.011.3-1.7-24.9-6.0-15.40.00.00.0-32.2
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/9/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$30,000
Age72 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades951
# Profitable284
% Profitable29.9%
Avg trade duration13.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown84.7%
drawdown periodFeb 12, 2021 - Aug 28, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)-10.9%
Avg win$1,638
Avg loss$665

Ratios

W:L ratio1.05
Sharpe Ratio0.01
Sortino Ratio0.01
Calmar Ratio0.69

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life123.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-166.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-10.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)9.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity502.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options1.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss86.0%
Chance of 20% account loss75.5%
Chance of 30% account loss64.0%
Chance of 40% account loss45.5%
Chance of 50% account loss29.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)15.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)6.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?185409
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$665
Avg Win$1,638
# Winners284
Sum Trade PL (losers)$443,441
Sum Trade PL (winners)$465,211
Num Months Winners16
# Losers667
% Winners29.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct228

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table72

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)19567.38
Avg Position Time (hrs)326.12
Avg Trade Length13.60
Last Trade Ago718

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)5.06
Daily leverage (max)44.81

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta-0.16
Treynor Index-0.01

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-15.90
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.75
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.20
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.04
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.06

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.60
SD1.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df22
t0.73
p0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.94
Sortino ratio2.62
Upside Potential Ratio4.89
Upside part of mean1.11
Downside part of mean-0.52
Upside SD1.09
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms15
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion0.60
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion1.12
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.48
Mean Square Error1.32
DF error21
t(b)0.20
p(b)0.47
t(a)0.49
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.55
Treynor index (mean / b)2.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.48
Mean0.25
SD0.74
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.33
df22
t0.47
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.75
Sortino ratio1.04
Upside Potential Ratio3.30
Upside part of mean0.79
Downside part of mean-0.54
Upside SD0.68
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms15
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.74
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.57
DF error21
t(b)0.06
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.36
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.57
Treynor index (mean / b)4.52
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
VaR(95%)0.28
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.34
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
Mean0.49
SD0.77
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.64
df506
t0.89
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.05
Sortino ratio1.49
Upside Potential Ratio8.77
Upside part of mean2.89
Downside part of mean-2.40
Upside SD0.69
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms179
N negative terms328
N of observations507
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.49
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.77
Covariance-0.01
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.53
Mean Square Error0.59
DF error505
t(b)-0.74
p(b)0.77
t(a)0.96
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.62
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.53
Mean0.25
SD0.67
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.37
df506
t0.51
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.78
Sortino ratio0.72
Upside Potential Ratio7.83
Upside part of mean2.71
Downside part of mean-2.46
Upside SD0.58
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms179
N negative terms328
N of observations507
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.67
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.27
Mean Square Error0.45
DF error505
t(b)-0.56
p(b)0.71
t(a)0.56
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.27
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean-0.55
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.35
df130
t-0.96
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.43
Sortino ratio-1.84
Upside Potential Ratio5.27
Upside part of mean1.57
Downside part of mean-2.12
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms27
N negative terms104
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion-0.55
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.60
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error129
t(b)0.47
p(b)0.47
t(a)-1.03
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)-11.73
Jensen alpha (a)-0.60
Mean-0.63
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.55
df130
t-1.10
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.23
Sortino ratio-2.06
Upside Potential Ratio5.00
Upside part of mean1.53
Downside part of mean-2.16
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms27
N negative terms104
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion-0.63
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.68
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error129
t(b)0.50
p(b)0.47
t(a)-1.17
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-12.42
Jensen alpha (a)-0.68
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations23
Minimum0.86
Quartile 10.93
Median0.97
Quartile 31.07
Maximum2.48
Mean of quarter 10.88
Mean of quarter 20.96
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.35
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high2.48
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-7.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.69
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Number of observations507
Minimum0.82
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.75
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low34
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high57
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.42
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.44
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low20
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high18
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.07
Median0.08
Quartile 30.25
Maximum0.42
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.42
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.23
Maximum0.46
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.16
Mean of quarter 40.38
Inter Quartile Range0.22
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.28
Quartile 10.28
Median0.28
Quartile 30.28
Maximum0.28
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-385045888
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1293
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.32
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.76
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.95
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.36
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.32
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.69
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.83
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.91
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.52
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.45
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.61
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-8.62

Trading record

Placed 1541 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GRPN2427I14 long12Sep 3, 2024Sep 28, 2024($848)
NVAX2427I13.5 long8Sep 3, 2024Sep 28, 2024($886)
DOCU2420I60 long4Aug 19, 2024Sep 21, 2024($931)
CRWD2420I295 long1Aug 19, 2024Sep 20, 2024($351)
AFRM2420I31.5 long4Aug 19, 2024Sep 3, 2024$4,246
MARA2416T16 long16Aug 9, 2024Aug 17, 2024($715)
MARA2416H18 long16Aug 9, 2024Aug 17, 2024($763)
MSTR2416H140 long2Aug 9, 2024Aug 17, 2024($831)
MSTR2416T126 long2Aug 9, 2024Aug 17, 2024($817)
MARA2409T15.5 long50Aug 8, 2024Aug 10, 2024($685)
MARA2409H19.5 long16Aug 2, 2024Aug 10, 2024($879)
MSTR2409T130 long3Aug 8, 2024Aug 10, 2024($863)
MARA2409H17 long35Aug 8, 2024Aug 9, 2024($534)
MSTR2409H135 long3Aug 8, 2024Aug 9, 2024($631)
MARA2409T17 long13Aug 2, 2024Aug 5, 2024$2,673
PATH2402H12.5 long35Jul 29, 2024Aug 3, 2024($760)
CELH2402H49 long10Jul 29, 2024Aug 3, 2024($677)
CELH2402T45 long10Jul 29, 2024Aug 2, 2024$1,616
PATH2402T12 long50Jul 29, 2024Aug 1, 2024$930
W2426G57 long5Jul 15, 2024Jul 26, 2024($787)
W2426G55 long5Jul 8, 2024Jul 26, 2024($887)
MARA2426S20.5 long20Jul 24, 2024Jul 26, 2024($588)
MARA2426G23 long20Jul 24, 2024Jul 26, 2024($768)
RIOT2426G12 long28Jul 24, 2024Jul 26, 2024($711)
RIOT2426S11 long35Jul 24, 2024Jul 26, 2024($434)
KSS2412G23 long50Jul 10, 2024Jul 13, 2024($835)
KSS2412S21.5 long55Jul 10, 2024Jul 13, 2024($754)
GME2412S25 long15Jul 10, 2024Jul 13, 2024($836)
GME2412G27 long15Jul 10, 2024Jul 13, 2024($806)
AFRM2428R31 long25Jun 26, 2024Jun 27, 2024$917

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.