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TEST LRCFX AND EQUITY

Futures · Futures · Started Jun 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
39.4%
Max Drawdown
65.9%
Trades
230
Win Trades
67.0%
Profit Factor
0.50
Win Months
21.1%

About this strategy

Trader Name: London School of Trading.
Location: London
Experience in Markets: 18 years
Job Title: Finance
Preferred Markets: FX
Sharpe Ratio On Strategy Launch With TPP: 1.21

Comments From The Strategy Designer:

An FX and equity strategy that will build a small basket of FX pairs, and look to take advantage of the worlds largest market. Equities are added to the basket (long and short) to provide diversification.

Often trades FX pairs where momentum is faltering, and beginning to reverse.

We're 'in the markets' more often that 'out of the markets' and I would consider this strategy as a solid underpin to any FX exposure one may require, whilst at the same time providing 'buy' and 'sell' exposure to global stock markets.

Currencies

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20205.8-8.9-12.183.5-46.5132.60.393.8
2021-15.618.727.04.2-1.810.712.01.3-4.98.7-0.913.389.5
2022-2.6-12.3-8.8-5.56.1-30.021.8-4.7-23.221.2-334.7-7.8-249.5
2023-3.0-3.3-3.6-2.3-3.9-2.7-4.0-5.3-2.8-0.9-2.40.0
2024-0.8-0.8-2.3-1.9-1.5-1.5-3.0-0.2-1.9-4.5-2.0
2025-1.5-2.5-4.30.0-1.9-2.0-0.50.0-1.9-2.2
2026-1.00.0-3.5-1.5-0.7-1.8-1.8

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/4/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age76 months
What it tradesFutures, Forex
# Trades230
# Profitable154
% Profitable67.0%
Avg trade duration16.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown65.9%
drawdown periodOct 13, 2020 - Oct 30, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)39.4%
Avg win$1,098
Avg loss$4,541

Ratios

W:L ratio0.49
Sharpe Ratio-0.34
Sortino Ratio-0.35
Calmar Ratio-0.98

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.18
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life146.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)96.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)39.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.4%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.2%
Percent Trades Futures0.8%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss75.0%
Chance of 20% account loss59.0%
Chance of 30% account loss49.5%
Chance of 40% account loss25.5%
Chance of 50% account loss7.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)553
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)478

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$4,541
Avg Win$1,098
# Winners154
Sum Trade PL (losers)$345,124
Sum Trade PL (winners)$169,149
Num Months Winners15
# Losers76
% Winners67.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table30

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)23912.95
Avg Position Time (hrs)398.55
Avg Trade Length16.60
Last Trade Ago1445

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.24
Daily leverage (max)19.20

Regression

Alpha0
Beta1.16
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.13
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades11.89
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.36
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.81
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.42
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.54

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.63
SD0.69
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.89
df26
t1.37
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.21
Sortino ratio2.01
Upside Potential Ratio3.89
Upside part of mean1.22
Downside part of mean-0.59
Upside SD0.63
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms11
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.63
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.69
Covariance0.04
r0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.91
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.43
Mean Square Error0.42
DF error25
t(b)2.23
p(b)0.02
t(a)0.97
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.33
Treynor index (mean / b)0.33
Jensen alpha (a)0.43
Mean0.42
SD0.63
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.64
df26
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio1.19
Upside Potential Ratio3.04
Upside part of mean1.07
Downside part of mean-0.65
Upside SD0.52
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms11
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.63
Covariance0.04
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.24
Mean Square Error0.33
DF error25
t(b)2.42
p(b)0.01
t(a)0.61
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.05
Treynor index (mean / b)0.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.24
VaR(95%)0.23
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.29
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
Mean0.50
SD0.57
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.88
df606
t1.34
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.17
Sortino ratio1.42
Upside Potential Ratio8.23
Upside part of mean2.92
Downside part of mean-2.41
Upside SD0.45
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms308
N negative terms299
N of observations607
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.50
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.57
Covariance0.03
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.80
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.31
DF error605
t(b)6.75
p(b)0
t(a)1.23
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.16
Treynor index (mean / b)0.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
Mean0.34
SD0.56
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df606
t0.93
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.90
Sortino ratio0.92
Upside Potential Ratio7.58
Upside part of mean2.82
Downside part of mean-2.48
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.37
N nonnegative terms308
N negative terms299
N of observations607
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.56
Covariance0.03
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.79
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30
Mean Square Error0.30
DF error605
t(b)6.78
p(b)0
t(a)0.84
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.00
Treynor index (mean / b)0.43
Jensen alpha (a)0.30
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.45
SD0.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.90
df130
t-0.64
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.88
Sortino ratio-1.16
Upside Potential Ratio6.93
Upside part of mean2.67
Downside part of mean-3.12
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.38
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.36
Mean of criterion-0.45
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.50
Covariance0.07
r0.55
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error129
t(b)7.54
p(b)0.17
t(a)-0.11
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.42
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean-0.57
SD0.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.13
df130
t-0.81
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.64
Sortino ratio-1.44
Upside Potential Ratio6.59
Upside part of mean2.62
Downside part of mean-3.19
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.40
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.39
Mean of criterion-0.57
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.50
Covariance0.07
r0.55
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.15
Mean Square Error0.18
DF error129
t(b)7.47
p(b)0.17
t(a)-0.25
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.53
Jensen alpha (a)-0.15
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations27
Minimum0.72
Quartile 10.92
Median1.05
Quartile 31.14
Maximum1.60
Mean of quarter 10.84
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.08
Mean of quarter 41.31
Inter Quartile Range0.22
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.55
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.47
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.24
Number of observations607
Minimum0.83
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.25
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low31
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high38
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.35
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.08
Median0.09
Quartile 30.19
Maximum0.44
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.18
Mean of quarter 40.32
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.44
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations31
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.60
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.27
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.55
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.32
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.68
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.12
Median0.20
Quartile 30.28
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.36
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-306463200
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)17
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.77
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.56
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.96
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.59
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.45
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.75
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.67
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.62
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.48
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.42
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-6.57

Trading record

Placed 351 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
DXM U2long1Sep 13, 2022Sep 16, 2022($1,201)
LF U2long2Jun 17, 2022Sep 16, 2022$4,693
MT Q2long1Jul 14, 2022Aug 19, 2022$5,583
DXM U2long1Jun 17, 2022Jul 5, 2022($3,523)
DXM M2long1May 19, 2022Jun 17, 2022($2,614)
LF M2long2Mar 23, 2022Jun 17, 2022($5,483)
MT K2long2Apr 14, 2022May 9, 2022($8,045)
M2K Z2long1Mar 22, 2022May 9, 2022($951)
MT J2long2Mar 31, 2022Apr 14, 2022($1,364)
MYM M2long1Mar 23, 2022Mar 25, 2022$203
MNQ M2long2Mar 17, 2022Mar 21, 2022$1,571
DXS H2long1Mar 16, 2022Mar 17, 2022$48
M2K H2long1Mar 11, 2022Mar 17, 2022$229
MNQ H2long3Mar 4, 2022Mar 17, 2022($1,002)
MES H2long1Mar 16, 2022Mar 16, 2022$433
LF H2long1Mar 15, 2022Mar 15, 2022$1,277
MYM H2short2Feb 24, 2022Mar 15, 2022($492)
LF H2short1Mar 11, 2022Mar 13, 2022$83
MT H2long1Mar 8, 2022Mar 8, 2022$1,713
MT H2short1Mar 4, 2022Mar 7, 2022$1,803
LF H2long1Feb 24, 2022Mar 6, 2022($6,424)
MT H2long1Mar 4, 2022Mar 4, 2022($1,231)
NKD H2short1Mar 4, 2022Mar 4, 2022($608)
M2K H2short2Mar 2, 2022Mar 4, 2022$259
MT H2long1Mar 3, 2022Mar 4, 2022($3,111)
MNQ H2long1Mar 1, 2022Mar 3, 2022($546)
MT H2long1Mar 1, 2022Mar 2, 2022$1,227
M2K H2short4Feb 18, 2022Mar 2, 2022$149
MT H2long2Feb 18, 2022Mar 1, 2022($12,537)
M2K H2short2Feb 17, 2022Feb 18, 2022$253

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.