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NQ Positional

Futures · Futures · Started May 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
33.4%
Max Drawdown
37.2%
Trades
367
Win Trades
40.6%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
54.5%
Subscribe $149/mo

About this strategy

A momentum based strategy that takes position on Nasdaq futures. If you follow the simple rule of not overleveraging and sticking to the system, you will see significant appreciation of capital. Recommended capital allocation - about USD 50000 per contract. Maximum number of contract that model account trades at a given point in time will not exceed 2. Thanks for your attention

Model account was rescaled to 100K end of April 2021. The rescaling does not affect any customer. System will always have maximum number contracts as 2.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20202.59.230.919.12.35.86.93.6109.0
20210.2-0.6-0.69.6-6.020.37.92.2-11.316.311.519.886.4
2022-0.1-5.82.8-5.09.4-9.714.8-3.9-5.5-1.30.6-9.6-14.9
202310.1-8.49.5-6.56.33.5-3.69.8-8.3-5.924.92.733.3
20245.42.9-3.6-9.216.818.44.4-4.0-3.6-5.7-4.47.222.5
2025-3.50.2-8.0-6.33.47.51.1-4.96.44.7-5.2-5.3-10.8
2026-2.1-4.3-2.633.232.8-10.5-24.319.2-0.829.4

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/5/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$300,000
Age77 months
C2 Rank370
What it tradesFutures
# Trades367
# Profitable149
% Profitable40.6%
Avg trade duration3.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown37.2%
drawdown periodJuly 10, 2024 - April 12, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)33.4%
Avg win$7,570
Avg loss$4,019

Ratios

W:L ratio1.29
Sharpe Ratio0.95
Sortino Ratio1.49
Calmar Ratio1.09

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.36
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life167.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)357.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)33.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)34.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity27.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss48.5%
Chance of 20% account loss20.5%
Chance of 30% account loss11.0%
Chance of 40% account loss2.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated98.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)380
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)877
C2 Score370
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)617

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$4,019
Avg Win$7,586
# Winners149
Sum Trade PL (losers)$876,191
Sum Trade PL (winners)$1,130,333
Num Months Winners42
# Losers218
% Winners40.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table77

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4951.38
Avg Position Time (hrs)82.52
Avg Trade Length3.40
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.75
Daily leverage (max)5.93

Regression

Alpha0.06
Beta0.58
Treynor Index0.15

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.72
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.88
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats85.02
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats55.20
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.22
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.21
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.17

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.34
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.94
df74
t2.37
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.74
Sortino ratio2.03
Upside Potential Ratio3.87
Upside part of mean0.64
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms40
N negative terms35
N of observations75
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.03
r0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error73
t(b)5.19
p(b)0
t(a)1.33
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)0.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
Mean0.27
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.80
df74
t2.03
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.60
Sortino ratio1.55
Upside Potential Ratio3.35
Upside part of mean0.59
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms40
N negative terms35
N of observations75
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.27
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.03
r0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error73
t(b)5.17
p(b)0
t(a)1.08
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)0.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean0.31
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.18
df1646
t2.95
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio1.91
Upside Potential Ratio9.73
Upside part of mean1.59
Downside part of mean-1.28
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms704
N negative terms943
N of observations1647
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.02
r0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error1645
t(b)15.84
p(b)0.27
t(a)2.34
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.43
Treynor index (mean / b)0.55
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
Mean0.28
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.05
df1646
t2.64
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.83
Sortino ratio1.67
Upside Potential Ratio9.45
Upside part of mean1.57
Downside part of mean-1.29
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms704
N negative terms943
N of observations1647
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.02
r0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error1645
t(b)15.79
p(b)0.27
t(a)2.08
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)0.49
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.77
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.04
df130
t1.45
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.82
Sortino ratio3.62
Upside Potential Ratio11.34
Upside part of mean2.40
Downside part of mean-1.64
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms65
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.77
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance0.03
r0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.37
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.46
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error129
t(b)6.62
p(b)0.19
t(a)1.00
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.37
Treynor index (mean / b)0.56
Jensen alpha (a)0.46
Mean0.70
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.88
df130
t1.34
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.67
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.66
Sortino ratio3.23
Upside Potential Ratio10.92
Upside part of mean2.36
Downside part of mean-1.66
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms65
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.70
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance0.03
r0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.41
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error129
t(b)6.63
p(b)0.19
t(a)0.90
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.95
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.31
Treynor index (mean / b)0.52
Jensen alpha (a)0.41
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations75
Minimum0.79
Quartile 10.96
Median1.01
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.32
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.17
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.30
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations1647
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low41
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high83
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.82
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.06
Median0.11
Quartile 30.20
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.11
Mean of quarter 30.17
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-21.90
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.27
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.34
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.34
Number of observations54
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.19
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations5
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.04
Median0.05
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.31
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.31
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-419659584
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)641
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.90
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.35
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.28
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.17
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.93
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.36
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.09
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.36
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.15
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.87
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.44
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.44
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal24.56

Trading record

Placed 1310 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NQ U6long2Aug 25, 2026Sep 1, 2026$986
NQ U6long3Aug 7, 2026Aug 18, 2026($12,798)
NQ U6long3Jul 31, 2026Aug 6, 2026$46,066
NQ U6long1Jul 30, 2026Jul 31, 2026$4,752
NQ U6long2Jul 21, 2026Jul 23, 2026($19,432)
NQ U6long1Jul 15, 2026Jul 16, 2026($11,352)
NQ U6long1Jul 14, 2026Jul 15, 2026($8,282)
NQ U6long2Jul 9, 2026Jul 13, 2026($11,996)
NQ U6long1Jul 6, 2026Jul 7, 2026($14,044)
NQ U6long2Jun 30, 2026Jul 1, 2026($7,870)
NQ U6long1Jun 29, 2026Jun 29, 2026$3,388
NQ U6long2Jun 18, 2026Jun 23, 2026($19,930)
NQ M6long2Jun 15, 2026Jun 16, 2026($13,116)
NQ M6long1Jun 11, 2026Jun 12, 2026$11,128
NQ M6long5May 20, 2026Jun 5, 2026$28,172
NQ M6long2May 13, 2026May 15, 2026($8,046)
NQ M6long11Apr 8, 2026May 12, 2026$120,176
NQ M6long1Apr 8, 2026Apr 8, 2026($1,812)
NQ M6long1Apr 6, 2026Apr 7, 2026($5,792)
NQ M6long1Apr 1, 2026Apr 1, 2026$42
NQ M6long1Mar 31, 2026Apr 1, 2026$11,392
NQ M6long1Mar 25, 2026Mar 26, 2026($5,280)
NQ H6long1Mar 16, 2026Mar 18, 2026($1,888)
NQ H6long1Mar 9, 2026Mar 11, 2026($24)
NQ H6long1Mar 2, 2026Mar 3, 2026($9,918)
NQ H6long2Feb 24, 2026Feb 26, 2026($12,612)
NQ H6long1Feb 20, 2026Feb 23, 2026($2,698)
NQ H6long1Feb 18, 2026Feb 18, 2026($1,478)
NQ H6long1Feb 6, 2026Feb 10, 2026$7,866
NQ H6long1Jan 26, 2026Jan 29, 2026($1,654)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.