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Market Neutral ETF

Equity · Stocks · Started May 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
3.2%
Max Drawdown
79.9%
Trades
456
Win Trades
32.7%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
46.8%
Subscribe $125/mo

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-2.4-3.12.699.40.110.82.9-3.4113.2
2021-4.1-3.62.6-0.91.3-5.6-8.5-1.9-2.43.22.9-11.2-25.7
20227.71.4-5.7-2.5-0.5-7.7-9.0-3.04.60.4-7.0-1.9-22.0
20239.6-3.12.2-3.31.58.73.5-3.7-4.3-6.05.019.330.1
2024-4.58.5-2.7-11.2-4.12.2-2.4-14.10.44.815.41.3-9.5
2025-12.2-3.8-9.6-7.3-9.3-10.7-2.41.037.9-7.7-13.014.3-28.4
2026-2.45.4-1.83.98.01.20.51.20.617.6

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/4/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age77 months
C2 Rank258
What it tradesStocks
# Trades456
# Profitable149
% Profitable32.7%
Avg trade duration58.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown79.9%
drawdown periodApril 05, 2021 - May 19, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)3.2%
Avg win$2,007
Avg loss$898

Ratios

W:L ratio1.09
Sharpe Ratio0.20
Sortino Ratio0.39
Calmar Ratio0.11

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.12
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life169.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-147.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)3.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity98.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.2%
Short Options - Percent Covered14.3%
Percent Trades Stocks0.8%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss93.0%
Chance of 20% account loss88.5%
Chance of 30% account loss72.5%
Chance of 40% account loss65.0%
Chance of 50% account loss52.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)40.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)21.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)5.5%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)324
C2 Score258
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$898
Avg Win$2,007
# Winners149
Sum Trade PL (losers)$275,590
Sum Trade PL (winners)$299,072
Num Months Winners36
# Losers307
% Winners32.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct2058

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table77

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)83798.88
Avg Position Time (hrs)1396.65
Avg Trade Length58.20
Last Trade Ago23

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.98
Daily leverage (max)13.75

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.35
Treynor Index0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.09
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-7.69
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.12
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.42
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.21
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.11
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.25
df72
t0.62
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.04
Sortino ratio0.69
Upside Potential Ratio2.70
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms35
N negative terms38
N of observations73
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance0.02
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.77
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error71
t(b)2.26
p(b)0.01
t(a)-0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)0.15
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
Mean0.04
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.11
df72
t0.26
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.90
Sortino ratio0.22
Upside Potential Ratio2.22
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.34
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms35
N negative terms38
N of observations73
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.01
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error71
t(b)2.25
p(b)0.01
t(a)-0.31
p(a)0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)0.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean0.12
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.28
df1598
t0.70
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.08
Sortino ratio0.56
Upside Potential Ratio7.03
Upside part of mean1.48
Downside part of mean-1.36
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms783
N negative terms816
N of observations1599
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance0.01
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error1597
t(b)5.41
p(b)0.41
t(a)0.42
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)0.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean0.04
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.10
df1598
t0.25
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.90
Sortino ratio0.18
Upside Potential Ratio6.50
Upside part of mean1.42
Downside part of mean-1.38
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms783
N negative terms816
N of observations1599
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error1597
t(b)5.75
p(b)0.41
t(a)-0.02
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.24
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.03
df130
t1.45
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.82
Sortino ratio3.03
Upside Potential Ratio10.97
Upside part of mean0.89
Downside part of mean-0.64
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms78
N negative terms53
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)6.39
p(b)0.20
t(a)0.90
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.43
Treynor index (mean / b)0.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean0.24
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.97
df130
t1.40
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.76
Sortino ratio2.92
Upside Potential Ratio10.85
Upside part of mean0.88
Downside part of mean-0.64
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms78
N negative terms53
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)6.42
p(b)0.20
t(a)0.88
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.43
Treynor index (mean / b)0.55
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations73
Minimum0.85
Quartile 10.96
Median1.00
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.94
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.39
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.72
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations1599
Minimum0.83
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.39
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low80
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high90
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.41
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.05
Median0.08
Quartile 30.32
Maximum0.55
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.55
Inter Quartile Range0.27
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.08
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.65
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.65
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.37
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.97
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.88
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.43
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-120046344
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1505
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.36
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.21
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.46
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.30
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.38
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs7.26
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal21.35

Trading record

Placed 93 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GMM short200Jul 10, 2026Aug 21, 2026$316
WVE short100Dec 8, 2025Aug 7, 2026$1,101
INBS short200Dec 31, 2025Aug 7, 2026$1,372
ZCMD short500Jul 22, 2026Aug 7, 2026$2,025
WYHG long100Aug 7, 2026Aug 7, 2026($12)
VRAX short200Jul 9, 2026Jul 27, 2026$610
BOXL short600Jun 24, 2026Jul 9, 2026$898
ASX short25Jun 22, 2026Jul 9, 2026($9)
APPS short100Jun 22, 2026Jul 9, 2026($246)
CETX short30Dec 8, 2025Jun 24, 2026$2,158
AMST long1302May 19, 2026Jun 22, 2026($592)
ALAR long200Dec 30, 2025Jun 22, 2026($102)
TGS long100Dec 29, 2025Jun 22, 2026($60)
ALLT long200Dec 29, 2025Jun 22, 2026($482)
ARLO long400Dec 29, 2025Jun 22, 2026($496)
APPN long200Dec 29, 2025May 6, 2026($2,798)
RSSS long300Dec 29, 2025May 6, 2026($123)
INTC2623A57 long2Jan 21, 2026Jan 24, 2026($243)
AFJK short50Dec 18, 2025Jan 7, 2026($548)
AMCI short300Dec 15, 2025Dec 29, 2025($1,183)
WOLF long500Jul 8, 2025Dec 19, 2025$12,451
RANI long500Oct 17, 2025Dec 19, 2025($265)
HOOD long3000Nov 29, 2025Dec 19, 2025$8,250
OLMA short100Nov 18, 2025Dec 16, 2025($1,497)
HOOD2528K128 long30Nov 28, 2025Nov 29, 2025($5,001)
MQ2521K5 long6Oct 23, 2025Nov 22, 2025($214)
GSIT long200Oct 21, 2025Nov 18, 2025($966)
USAR long200Oct 9, 2025Nov 18, 2025($3,324)
DNUT short500Jun 13, 2025Oct 9, 2025($400)
AGMH long100Sep 19, 2025Oct 9, 2025($535)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.