Saivers US ETF
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 7.6%
- Max Drawdown
- 100.0%
- Trades
- 313
- Win Trades
- 65.5%
- Profit Factor
- 1.30
- Win Months
- 56.1%
About this strategy
This automated trading system employs an advanced Reinforcement Learning agent that is based on a cognitive model of the human brain. Incorporating concepts from cognitive neuroscience and psychology including: emotions, working memory, attention and more. The agent is ideally suited to trading in markets with non-stationary statistical dynamics.
Ok so maybe a little technical, but the main point is that the algorithm automatically adapts to changing markets. It is always trying to balance risk/reward to achieve the highest gains over time while minimizing draw down. This algorithm has been under test for 3 years and optimized for the retail trader.
The basic trading workflow includes: 1. Selecting securities to trade in for Long positions. 2. Computing Long/Flat/Cash portfolio allocation. 3. Rebalance portfolio on weekly or longer basis depending on market conditions. The adaptive allocation management allows the portfolio to distribute resources into long, flat (fixed income ETFs) and cash. Our testing has shown that the adaptive allocation model significantly improves long term performance of the portfolio while controlling execution costs and complexity.
Ok so maybe a little technical, but the main point is that the algorithm automatically adapts to changing markets. It is always trying to balance risk/reward to achieve the highest gains over time while minimizing draw down. This algorithm has been under test for 3 years and optimized for the retail trader.
The basic trading workflow includes: 1. Selecting securities to trade in for Long positions. 2. Computing Long/Flat/Cash portfolio allocation. 3. Rebalance portfolio on weekly or longer basis depending on market conditions. The adaptive allocation management allows the portfolio to distribute resources into long, flat (fixed income ETFs) and cash. Our testing has shown that the adaptive allocation model significantly improves long term performance of the portfolio while controlling execution costs and complexity.
Trend-following Momentum
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 3.3 | 3.3 | |||||||||||
| 2020 | 2.2 | -12.9 | 7.2 | 17.0 | 10.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.1 | -1.6 | -1.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 47.9 |
| 2021 | -3.6 | 14.7 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | -3.4 | 4.6 | -2.8 | 3.5 | 40.1 |
| 2022 | -2.5 | -3.0 | -2.2 | -4.0 | 24.2 | -19.5 | 2.3 | -0.1 | -7.1 | 3.4 | 10.1 | -5.0 | -8.8 |
| 2023 | 4.1 | -5.0 | -37.0 | 11.0 | -8.4 | 4.4 | 9.7 | -4.7 | -7.3 | -1.9 | 10.1 | 2.7 | -28.9 |
| 2024 | -0.9 | 2.9 | 8.6 | -1.8 | 6.7 | -43.9 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 11.0 | -4.3 | -15.1 | |
| 2025 | 11.1 | -3.8 | -5.4 | -7.7 | 14.4 | 7.4 | 8.4 | -0.5 | 5.3 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 28.8 |
| 2026 | 1.0 | 11.7 | -4.1 | 6.0 | -0.7 | -2.1 | 2.7 | 0.1 | -4.9 | 0.0 | 8.9 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 12/2/2019 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $50,000 |
| Age | 83 months |
| What it trades | Stocks |
| # Trades | 313 |
| # Profitable | 205 |
| % Profitable | 65.5% |
| Avg trade duration | 48.5 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 100.0% |
| drawdown period | Dec 27, 2019 - June 20, 2023 |
| Annual Return (Compounded) | 7.6% |
| Avg win | $757 |
| Avg loss | $1,297 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 1.26 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.28 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.65 |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.18 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | 0.11 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 148.0% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -80.3% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 7.6% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | 0.1% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 8.3% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 49.1% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 0.6% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Short Options - Percent Covered | 100.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 1.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 100.0% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 0 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 0 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 0 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 1 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $1,297 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $757 |
| # Winners | 205 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $140,029 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $155,193 |
| Num Months Winners | 46 |
| # Losers | 108 |
| % Winners | 65.5% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 21301 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 83 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 69839.87 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 1164 |
| Avg Trade Length | 48.50 |
| Last Trade Ago | 1437 |
Leverage
| Daily leverage (average) | 1.24 |
|---|---|
| Daily leverage (max) | 3.03 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0.03 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.21 |
| Treynor Index | 0.16 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.01 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.03 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.02 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | 2.55 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | -0.04 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.53 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.59 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | 0.07 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | 0.17 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.44 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.39 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.38 |
| df | 49 |
| t | 0.79 |
| p | 0.22 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.58 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.35 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.58 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.34 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.61 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.93 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.54 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.37 |
| Upside SD | 0.33 |
| Downside SD | 0.28 |
| N nonnegative terms | 30 |
| N negative terms | 20 |
| N of observations | 50 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.18 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.17 |
| SD of predictor | 0.23 |
| SD of criterion | 0.44 |
| Covariance | 0.04 |
| r | 0.44 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.82 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.02 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.16 |
| DF error | 48 |
| t(b) | 3.38 |
| p(b) | 0.00 |
| t(a) | 0.12 |
| p(a) | 0.45 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.33 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.31 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.37 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.42 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.21 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.02 |
| Mean | 0.07 |
| SD | 0.44 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.17 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.17 |
| df | 49 |
| t | 0.34 |
| p | 0.37 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.79 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.13 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.79 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.13 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.22 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.46 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.49 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.42 |
| Upside SD | 0.28 |
| Downside SD | 0.34 |
| N nonnegative terms | 30 |
| N negative terms | 20 |
| N of observations | 50 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.15 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.07 |
| SD of predictor | 0.23 |
| SD of criterion | 0.44 |
| Covariance | 0.04 |
| r | 0.35 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.67 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.02 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.18 |
| DF error | 48 |
| t(b) | 2.57 |
| p(b) | 0.01 |
| t(a) | -0.11 |
| p(a) | 0.55 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.15 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.19 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.44 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.40 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.11 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.02 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.18 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.23 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.06 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.13 |
| Mean | 0.38 |
| SD | 0.86 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.45 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.45 |
| df | 1111 |
| t | 0.92 |
| p | 0.48 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.51 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.40 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.51 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.40 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.94 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 4.18 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.72 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.33 |
| Upside SD | 0.76 |
| Downside SD | 0.41 |
| N nonnegative terms | 575 |
| N negative terms | 537 |
| N of observations | 1112 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.21 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.38 |
| SD of predictor | 0.24 |
| SD of criterion | 0.86 |
| Covariance | 0.01 |
| r | 0.05 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.17 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.35 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.74 |
| DF error | 1110 |
| t(b) | 1.63 |
| p(b) | 0.48 |
| t(a) | 0.83 |
| p(a) | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.03 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.38 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.47 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.17 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 2.23 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.35 |
| Mean | 0.10 |
| SD | 0.74 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.14 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.14 |
| df | 1111 |
| t | 0.28 |
| p | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.81 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.09 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.81 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.09 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.18 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.80 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.56 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.46 |
| Upside SD | 0.49 |
| Downside SD | 0.56 |
| N nonnegative terms | 575 |
| N negative terms | 537 |
| N of observations | 1112 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.18 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.10 |
| SD of predictor | 0.24 |
| SD of criterion | 0.74 |
| Covariance | 0.01 |
| r | 0.06 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.18 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.07 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.55 |
| DF error | 1110 |
| t(b) | 1.99 |
| p(b) | 0.47 |
| t(a) | 0.19 |
| p(a) | 0.50 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.00 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.36 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.64 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.77 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.56 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.07 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.07 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.09 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.03 |
| Mean | 0.55 |
| SD | 0.58 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.94 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.93 |
| df | 130 |
| t | 0.66 |
| p | 0.47 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.84 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 3.71 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.84 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 3.71 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.13 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 4.54 |
| Upside part of mean | 2.18 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.64 |
| Upside SD | 0.33 |
| Downside SD | 0.48 |
| N nonnegative terms | 80 |
| N negative terms | 51 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.05 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.55 |
| SD of predictor | 0.29 |
| SD of criterion | 0.58 |
| Covariance | 0.04 |
| r | 0.25 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.50 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.02 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.32 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 2.91 |
| p(b) | 0.34 |
| t(a) | 0.02 |
| p(a) | 0.50 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.16 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.85 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -1.61 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.64 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 1.08 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.02 |
| Mean | 0.36 |
| SD | 0.63 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.57 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.56 |
| df | 130 |
| t | 0.40 |
| p | 0.48 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -2.21 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 3.34 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -2.21 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 3.34 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.66 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 3.91 |
| Upside part of mean | 2.13 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.78 |
| Upside SD | 0.31 |
| Downside SD | 0.55 |
| N nonnegative terms | 80 |
| N negative terms | 51 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.01 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.36 |
| SD of predictor | 0.28 |
| SD of criterion | 0.63 |
| Covariance | 0.04 |
| r | 0.22 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.50 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.14 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.38 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 2.58 |
| p(b) | 0.36 |
| t(a) | -0.16 |
| p(a) | 0.51 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.12 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.07 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.88 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -1.92 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.63 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.72 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.14 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.06 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.08 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.03 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 50 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.61 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.98 |
| Median | 1.02 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.06 |
| Maximum | 1.55 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.89 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.04 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.14 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.08 |
| Number outliers low | 3 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.06 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.71 |
| Number of outliers high | 2 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.04 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.37 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.53 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.09 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.24 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.67 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.10 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.35 |
| Number of observations | 1112 |
| Minimum | 0.39 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1.00 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.01 |
| Maximum | 2.50 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.98 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.02 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.01 |
| Number outliers low | 56 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.05 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.94 |
| Number of outliers high | 62 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.06 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.07 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.68 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.05 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.52 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.03 |
| Number of observations | 131 |
| Minimum | 0.74 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1.00 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.01 |
| Maximum | 1.11 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.98 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.03 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.01 |
| Number outliers low | 7 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.05 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.91 |
| Number of outliers high | 14 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.11 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.05 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 1.05 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.93 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.19 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 6 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.01 |
| Median | 0.02 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.14 |
| Maximum | 0.57 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.02 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.03 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.37 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.13 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.17 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.57 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 51 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.00 |
| Median | 0.01 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.03 |
| Maximum | 0.78 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.13 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.02 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 7 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.14 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.21 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.85 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.13 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.86 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.98 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.07 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 3.76 |
| Number of observations | 11 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.00 |
| Median | 0.00 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.03 |
| Maximum | 0.43 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.17 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.03 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.09 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.43 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 1.10 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.19 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 6.51 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 1.67 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life? | -402991424 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 1271 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.2% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.13 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.11 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.19 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.29 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0.48 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.17 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.14 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.18 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 1.05 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 1.54 |
| j313dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j314dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.43 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.47 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 1.10 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 2.72 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 6.20 |
Trading record
Placed 168 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDBC | long | 2084 | Sep 20, 2022 | Sep 28, 2022 | ($1,339) |
| DIVO | long | 1033 | Sep 20, 2022 | Sep 28, 2022 | ($1,596) |
| QVAL | long | 1150 | Sep 20, 2022 | Sep 28, 2022 | ($1,868) |
| YOLO | long | 7172 | Sep 20, 2022 | Sep 28, 2022 | ($5,384) |
| BCI | long | 1293 | Sep 20, 2022 | Sep 23, 2022 | ($1,350) |
| QID | long | 2750 | Sep 13, 2022 | Sep 20, 2022 | $4,533 |
| QID | long | 2302 | Jun 21, 2022 | Jul 5, 2022 | $1,162 |
| NTSX | long | 1037 | May 24, 2022 | Jun 21, 2022 | ($1,993) |
| ARKK | long | 904 | May 24, 2022 | Jun 21, 2022 | $66 |
| ARKG | long | 1142 | May 24, 2022 | Jun 21, 2022 | ($1,660) |
| SCHG | long | 613 | May 24, 2022 | Jun 21, 2022 | ($841) |
| QVAL | long | 1066 | May 24, 2022 | Jun 21, 2022 | ($2,710) |
| FFSG | long | 1120 | May 24, 2022 | Jun 21, 2022 | ($2,082) |
| QID | long | 2645 | May 3, 2022 | May 24, 2022 | $10,100 |
| GMOM | long | 1076 | Apr 26, 2022 | May 3, 2022 | ($761) |
| AESR | long | 2679 | Apr 26, 2022 | May 3, 2022 | ($1,290) |
| SCHX | long | 673 | Apr 26, 2022 | May 3, 2022 | ($786) |
| COMT | long | 832 | Apr 26, 2022 | May 3, 2022 | $635 |
| IEFN | long | 1091 | Apr 26, 2022 | May 3, 2022 | ($1,101) |
| DFNL | long | 1167 | Apr 26, 2022 | May 3, 2022 | ($1,021) |
| QID | long | 2967 | Apr 19, 2022 | Apr 26, 2022 | $3,562 |
| RFDI | long | 520 | Mar 29, 2022 | Apr 19, 2022 | ($1,775) |
| FTGC | long | 1233 | Mar 29, 2022 | Apr 19, 2022 | $1,821 |
| AFLG | long | 1279 | Mar 29, 2022 | Apr 19, 2022 | ($1,281) |
| WBIT | long | 1568 | Mar 29, 2022 | Apr 19, 2022 | ($1,983) |
| LRNZ | long | 865 | Mar 29, 2022 | Apr 19, 2022 | ($4,507) |
| COMT | long | 885 | Mar 29, 2022 | Apr 19, 2022 | $2,458 |
| FTLS | long | 733 | Feb 8, 2022 | Feb 22, 2022 | ($308) |
| ZIG | long | 1201 | Feb 8, 2022 | Feb 22, 2022 | ($1,555) |
| GVAL | long | 1544 | Feb 8, 2022 | Feb 22, 2022 | ($1,947) |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.