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stock star

Equity · Stocks · Started Oct 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
6.3%
Max Drawdown
43.5%
Trades
262
Win Trades
56.1%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
28.6%

About this strategy

"stock star" only trade stock now, no futures, option, forex, follow the trend with strict risk management rules.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201946.18.14.665.3
20205.15.68.83.45.82.4-1.81.1-4.6-0.71.90.730.5
20210.0-1.01.9-0.910.45.2-2.30.2-5.30.2-3.25.19.9
2022-6.99.04.2-7.47.5-12.62.12.08.8-38.30.00.0-35.6
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/2/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$39,200
Age84 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades262
# Profitable147
% Profitable56.1%
Avg trade duration6.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown43.5%
drawdown periodSept 23, 2022 - Oct 28, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)6.3%
Avg win$1,072
Avg loss$945

Ratios

W:L ratio1.46
Sharpe Ratio0.28
Sortino Ratio0.38
Calmar Ratio0.82

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life165.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-111.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)6.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)12.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity77.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.1%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.9%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss33.5%
Chance of 20% account loss8.5%
Chance of 30% account loss2.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated9.7%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)445
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$945
Avg Win$1,072
# Winners147
Sum Trade PL (losers)$108,719
Sum Trade PL (winners)$157,519
Num Months Winners25
# Losers115
% Winners56.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct847

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table84

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)9636.23
Avg Position Time (hrs)160.60
Avg Trade Length6.70
Last Trade Ago1407

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.89
Daily leverage (max)12.98

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.01
Treynor Index1.12

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.86
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.75
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats77.34
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats97.39
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.55
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.42
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.11

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.28
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df38
t1.42
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.87
Sortino ratio1.59
Upside Potential Ratio2.68
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms16
N of observations39
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error37
t(b)0.05
p(b)0.48
t(a)1.31
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.71
Treynor index (mean / b)22.21
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
Mean0.22
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.64
df38
t1.18
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.74
Sortino ratio1.07
Upside Potential Ratio2.10
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms16
N of observations39
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error37
t(b)-0.05
p(b)0.52
t(a)1.13
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.63
Treynor index (mean / b)-17.10
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.24
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.18
df865
t2.14
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.25
Sortino ratio1.72
Upside Potential Ratio6.72
Upside part of mean0.93
Downside part of mean-0.69
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms382
N negative terms484
N of observations866
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error864
t(b)0.61
p(b)0.27
t(a)2.09
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)15.79
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
Mean0.22
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.07
df865
t1.94
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.15
Sortino ratio1.52
Upside Potential Ratio6.41
Upside part of mean0.92
Downside part of mean-0.70
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms382
N negative terms484
N of observations866
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error864
t(b)0.55
p(b)0.29
t(a)1.90
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.43
Treynor index (mean / b)15.92
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.50
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.54
df130
t-1.10
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.24
Sortino ratio-1.81
Upside Potential Ratio2.00
Upside part of mean0.55
Downside part of mean-1.06
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms120
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.42
Mean of criterion-0.50
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance-0.03
r-0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.23
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error129
t(b)-2.80
p(b)0.65
t(a)-0.50
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.67
Treynor index (mean / b)2.62
Jensen alpha (a)-0.23
Mean-0.56
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.66
df130
t-1.18
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.12
Sortino ratio-1.91
Upside Potential Ratio1.85
Upside part of mean0.54
Downside part of mean-1.10
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms120
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.34
Mean of criterion-0.56
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance-0.03
r-0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.29
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error129
t(b)-2.81
p(b)0.65
t(a)-0.62
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.34
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.64
Treynor index (mean / b)2.78
Jensen alpha (a)-0.29
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations39
Minimum0.70
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.48
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.70
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.64
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations866
Minimum0.87
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low65
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high95
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.70
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.53
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.87
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.06
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.30
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations36
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.34
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.77
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.48
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.92
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.77
Number of observations1
Minimum0.34
Quartile 10.34
Median0.34
Quartile 30.34
Maximum0.34
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-465044288
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)35
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.28
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.96
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.39
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.70
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.28
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.82
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.88
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.21
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.46
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.41
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-9.42

Trading record

Placed 445 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SQQQ long2000Oct 12, 2022Oct 25, 2022($24,085)
TQQQ long13000Oct 10, 2022Oct 12, 2022($6,430)
SQQQ long2000Oct 11, 2022Oct 12, 2022($1,605)
SQQQ long2200Oct 10, 2022Oct 10, 2022($1,677)
SQQQ long2400Oct 10, 2022Oct 10, 2022($1,613)
SQQQ long2400Oct 10, 2022Oct 10, 2022($1,403)
SQQQ long2000Oct 7, 2022Oct 10, 2022$2,575
SQQQ long2000Oct 7, 2022Oct 7, 2022$13
SQQQ long2000Oct 7, 2022Oct 7, 2022$410
SQQQ long500Oct 7, 2022Oct 7, 2022($195)
SQQQ long6272Oct 3, 2022Oct 7, 2022$1,086
TQQQ long45080Sep 29, 2022Oct 5, 2022($6,698)
SQQQ long2352Sep 30, 2022Oct 3, 2022($1,416)
SQQQ long4900Sep 28, 2022Sep 29, 2022($4,500)
TQQQ long1960Sep 28, 2022Sep 28, 2022($5)
SQQQ long1176Sep 27, 2022Sep 28, 2022($37)
SQQQ long1176Sep 27, 2022Sep 27, 2022$49
SQQQ long1176Sep 27, 2022Sep 27, 2022$167
SQQQ long392Sep 26, 2022Sep 26, 2022$451
SQQQ long2352Sep 19, 2022Sep 26, 2022$17,562
SQQQ long784Sep 19, 2022Sep 19, 2022$334
TQQQ long39.2Sep 19, 2022Sep 19, 2022$5
FLR long2352Jun 10, 2022Sep 19, 2022($7,958)
WTI long16464Apr 19, 2022May 13, 2022$4,860
DARE long8624Dec 14, 2021Apr 19, 2022($4,385)
FTV long1960Oct 5, 2021Apr 19, 2022($19,626)
GTE long32536Dec 17, 2021Mar 7, 2022$32,955
SNAP long862.4Oct 20, 2021Oct 20, 2021($588)
BIIB long78.4Jun 4, 2021Oct 20, 2021($1,440)
WDC long392May 26, 2021Jun 4, 2021$1,341

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.