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USTX-DON7

Stocks · Started Apr 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.0%
Max Drawdown
25.0%
Trades
147
Win Trades
57.8%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
7.8%

About this strategy

Our team manages the strategies prefixed ‘USTX’ on C2. Highlights for USTX-DON7 are
- Our portfolios are comprised of (long) Stocks only, no futures or options
- Fully automated
- Uses a proprietary strategy-development and portfolio-management framework
- USTX-DON7 trades DOW30 stocks plus ETFS like GLD, SLV and DBO, as well as TLT
- Rebalances every week or every two-weeks under normal (low volatility) market conditions,

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20193.8-1.05.94.18.4-2.0-1.24.91.026.1
20205.5-9.9-5.4-0.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-10.8
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/14/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$17,400
Age90 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades147
# Profitable85
% Profitable57.8%
Avg trade duration13.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown24.9%
drawdown periodFeb 06, 2020 - March 18, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)1.0%
Avg win$102
Avg loss$104

Ratios

W:L ratio1.40
Sharpe Ratio0.01
Sortino Ratio0.02
Calmar Ratio0.54

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.32
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life163.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-158.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity23.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated75.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$104
Avg Win$102
# Winners85
Sum Trade PL (losers)$6,475
Sum Trade PL (winners)$8,709
Num Months Winners7
# Losers62
% Winners57.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct385

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table90

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)19004.57
Avg Position Time (hrs)316.74
Avg Trade Length13.20
Last Trade Ago2334

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.88
Daily leverage (max)1.95

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.09
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.62
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.79
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats88.25
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats15.65
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.32
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.57
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.18

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.10
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.53
df21
t0.74
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.98
Sortino ratio0.70
Upside Potential Ratio1.53
Upside part of mean0.22
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms11
N of observations22
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.03
r0.42
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error20
t(b)2.07
p(b)0.29
t(a)0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)0.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.00
Mean0.08
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.41
df21
t0.57
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.86
Sortino ratio0.52
Upside Potential Ratio1.34
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms11
N of observations22
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.04
r0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error20
t(b)2.70
p(b)0.24
t(a)-0.16
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)0.35
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.09
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.89
df487
t1.22
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.33
Sortino ratio1.24
Upside Potential Ratio5.96
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms158
N negative terms330
N of observations488
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.01
r0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error486
t(b)6.73
p(b)0
t(a)0.67
p(a)0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)1.15
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.08
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.84
df487
t1.15
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.28
Sortino ratio1.16
Upside Potential Ratio5.85
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms158
N negative terms330
N of observations488
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.01
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error486
t(b)6.88
p(b)0
t(a)0.66
p(a)0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)1.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.24
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6787093615345664
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)7.43813274468588e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations22
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.81
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations488
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low68
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high88
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.43
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.19
Quartile 10.19
Median0.19
Quartile 30.19
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations22
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.83
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.35
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-409606528
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)41
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.61
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.13
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.54
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.08
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.72
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 181 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
DBO long500Mar 2, 2020Apr 16, 2020($1,070)
MSFT long30Mar 3, 2020Mar 25, 2020($58)
INTC long91Mar 2, 2020Mar 24, 2020($115)
AMD long25Mar 18, 2020Mar 19, 2020$64
GLD long32Mar 2, 2020Mar 3, 2020$132
MSFT long19Feb 27, 2020Feb 28, 2020($198)
SLV long208Feb 25, 2020Feb 28, 2020($295)
DBO long485Feb 19, 2020Feb 28, 2020($551)
BA long16Feb 19, 2020Feb 28, 2020($887)
JNJ long13Feb 7, 2020Feb 28, 2020($245)
PFE long101Feb 19, 2020Feb 27, 2020($204)
AAPL long12Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020($48)
MSFT long19Feb 7, 2020Feb 25, 2020($270)
AAPL long12Feb 7, 2020Feb 25, 2020($288)
KO long11Feb 7, 2020Feb 21, 2020$9
UNH long5Feb 7, 2020Feb 21, 2020$48
SLV long116Feb 7, 2020Feb 19, 2020$56
GLD long47Feb 7, 2020Feb 19, 2020$82
TRV long29Jan 28, 2020Feb 7, 2020$42
BA long17Jan 28, 2020Feb 7, 2020$386
WMT long19Jan 28, 2020Feb 7, 2020($13)
GLD long110Jan 15, 2020Feb 7, 2020$127
PFE long127Jan 28, 2020Feb 7, 2020($4)
DIS long10Jan 28, 2020Feb 7, 2020$17
SLB long97Jan 29, 2020Feb 7, 2020($26)
IBM long5Jan 28, 2020Feb 7, 2020$70
PG long3Jan 17, 2020Jan 28, 2020($3)
SLV long150Jan 24, 2020Jan 28, 2020($82)
V long7Jan 17, 2020Jan 24, 2020$26
KO long13Jan 17, 2020Jan 24, 2020$7

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.