Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

favour etf

Equity · Stocks · Started Mar 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
37.1%
Max Drawdown
22.3%
Trades
237
Win Trades
50.6%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
48.4%

About this strategy

Among the 200 stocks with the highest trading volume, select one or two stocks with the best trend, follow the trend, use normal margin, when the profit reaches a certain level, it will move the stop loss line above cost price, then let the profit fly until it tet to target profit line or the trend go against.

Trend-following Sector: Technology

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20193.60.5-0.29.6-1.5-2.610.917.05.05.256.5
20202.93.16.70.05.9-2.05.52.3-3.4-2.910.91.133.4
20210.5-1.25.9-6.519.58.1-12.41.5-9.30.0-5.6-2.3-5.5
2022-2.2-5.7-4.7-4.1-0.53.8-2.0-3.68.0-0.56.4-2.6-8.4
20233.9-6.20.02.22.5-3.4-1.4-2.1-1.4-2.9-1.34.0-6.4
2024-3.1-2.2-1.4-0.52.20.40.0-3.30.6-4.0-3.5-1.0-14.9
2025-0.60.6-0.5-4.62.30.61.02.40.31.94.7-1.56.4
20261.22.0-2.9-0.61.71.40.42.4-1.93.6

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/21/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$40,000
Age91 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades237
# Profitable120
% Profitable50.6%
Avg trade duration22.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown22.3%
drawdown periodJune 10, 2021 - Sept 16, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)37.1%
Avg win$896
Avg loss$679

Ratios

W:L ratio1.37
Sharpe Ratio0.31
Sortino Ratio0.46
Calmar Ratio0.43

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.24
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life169.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)65.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)37.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.4%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity79.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss10.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)543
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)819
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)692

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$679
Avg Win$896
# Winners120
Sum Trade PL (losers)$79,407
Sum Trade PL (winners)$107,479
Num Months Winners48
# Losers117
% Winners50.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1288

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table91

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)32699.58
Avg Position Time (hrs)544.99
Avg Trade Length22.70
Last Trade Ago1923

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.84
Daily leverage (max)7.83

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.19
Treynor Index0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.56
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.55
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats75.15
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats89.62
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.52
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.48
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.21

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.37
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.59
df27
t2.50
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.94
Sortino ratio3.84
Upside Potential Ratio5.57
Upside part of mean0.54
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms9
N of observations28
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.37
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error26
t(b)1.49
p(b)0.07
t(a)1.96
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.62
Treynor index (mean / b)0.94
Jensen alpha (a)0.30
Mean0.34
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.52
df27
t2.38
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.86
Sortino ratio3.43
Upside Potential Ratio5.16
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms9
N of observations28
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.01
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error26
t(b)1.48
p(b)0.08
t(a)1.93
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)0.94
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.36
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.88
df613
t2.88
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.16
Sortino ratio3.11
Upside Potential Ratio10.47
Upside part of mean1.21
Downside part of mean-0.85
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms312
N negative terms302
N of observations614
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.36
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error612
t(b)3.72
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.72
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)3.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.34
Mean0.34
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.79
df613
t2.74
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.07
Sortino ratio2.91
Upside Potential Ratio10.23
Upside part of mean1.20
Downside part of mean-0.86
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms312
N negative terms302
N of observations614
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error612
t(b)3.72
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.62
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)3.00
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.05
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.23
df130
t0.16
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.00
Sortino ratio0.34
Upside Potential Ratio8.47
Upside part of mean1.29
Downside part of mean-1.24
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms70
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error129
t(b)1.25
p(b)0.43
t(a)-0.00
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.63
Treynor index (mean / b)0.22
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
Mean0.03
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.12
df130
t0.08
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.89
Sortino ratio0.17
Upside Potential Ratio8.25
Upside part of mean1.28
Downside part of mean-1.25
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms70
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error129
t(b)1.25
p(b)0.43
t(a)-0.08
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.60
Treynor index (mean / b)0.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations28
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1.03
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.72
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations614
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low20
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high29
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations51
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-27.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.28
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-323375552
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)98
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.59
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.45
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.64
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.92
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.63
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.58
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.44
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.15
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.99
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal19.63
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.27
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.51
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.00

Trading record

Placed 352 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BIIB short200Jun 4, 2021Jun 4, 2021($80)
WDC long1000May 26, 2021Jun 4, 2021$3,445
BMY long700Apr 6, 2021May 21, 2021$3,124
CNC long500Apr 6, 2021May 21, 2021$5,135
CDE long3500Apr 27, 2021May 21, 2021($180)
TWTR long300Mar 23, 2021Apr 27, 2021$462
XLU long900Mar 29, 2021Apr 6, 2021$454
IP long700Mar 23, 2021Mar 29, 2021$1,535
BMY long300Mar 22, 2021Mar 29, 2021$267
TEVA long3200Mar 11, 2021Mar 18, 2021$507
BMY long600Mar 10, 2021Mar 11, 2021($191)
RCL long500Mar 9, 2021Mar 11, 2021($287)
TSN long500Jan 22, 2021Mar 11, 2021$611
NEM long700Mar 4, 2021Mar 4, 2021($208)
LMT long100Mar 4, 2021Mar 4, 2021($199)
UPS long180Feb 2, 2021Mar 4, 2021($404)
KHC long1000Feb 26, 2021Mar 4, 2021$1,645
NEM long600Mar 1, 2021Mar 4, 2021($47)
CNC long400Dec 17, 2020Jan 22, 2021$40
MCK long100Dec 11, 2020Jan 22, 2021$795
VMW long200Dec 16, 2020Dec 17, 2020($68)
SRE long200Dec 15, 2020Dec 16, 2020($180)
JNJ long100Dec 16, 2020Dec 16, 2020($55)
GD long100Dec 16, 2020Dec 16, 2020($75)
KHC long850Dec 9, 2020Dec 15, 2020($294)
ALXN long150Dec 11, 2020Dec 11, 2020($96)
BMY short450Dec 9, 2020Dec 9, 2020$59
PFE long650Dec 7, 2020Dec 9, 2020$1,614
MCK long120Nov 27, 2020Dec 4, 2020($279)
HUM short38Nov 25, 2020Nov 27, 2020($183)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.