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Long/Short Strategy

Equity · Stocks · Started Jun 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.4%
Max Drawdown
74.8%
Trades
600
Win Trades
64.7%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
52.5%

About this strategy

The strategy utilizes technical/fundamental analysis to determine long/short stock trades. The portfolio can be long, short, or long/short depending on the current market environment. The strategy tends to be concentrated in only 10-20 holdings across long/short positions.

The Long/Short strategy is an aggressive growth strategy and investors should be willing to tolerate periods of volatility. The trading strategy can see periods of volatility due to periodic concentration in some positions, either long or short.

Margin is required to emulate the trading strategy.

Trading stops are utilized to limit the downside in each position. On average the strategy's total downside risk is targeted at 15-20% of the value of the total holdings, with some positions above and some positions below this average level.

While no system can guarantee risk-free or low-risk trading, and while unforeseen events can cause you to lose money, we do make an effort to control risk.

Non-hedged Equity Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2018-0.60.4-3.9-18.125.0-5.513.14.9
20195.511.012.38.64.56.2-4.51.82.20.718.27.2100.6
2020-7.4-12.7-13.118.7-28.8-30.12.13.0-10.33.095.7-5.4-25.2
202148.8-30.115.19.11.8-0.2-10.9-1.311.1-3.0-5.613.234.4
202214.717.9-10.715.0-5.06.8-12.16.49.8-5.50.414.857.6
2023-12.80.3-15.812.3-27.0-7.3-9.81.418.02.6-24.3-9.7-57.6
2024-11.0-8.712.914.5-25.96.96.8-2.6-20.111.7-5.319.5-12.6
20254.6-5.311.6-3.3-7.9-4.6-17.113.4-6.1-12.013.5-7.8-23.6
202618.2-0.515.9-6.9-24.45.40.0-17.8-5.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/25/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$35,000
Age100 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades600
# Profitable388
% Profitable64.7%
Avg trade duration59.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown74.8%
drawdown periodDec 28, 2022 - June 12, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.4%
Avg win$803
Avg loss$1,433

Ratios

W:L ratio1.03
Sharpe Ratio0.12
Sortino Ratio0.17
Calmar Ratio0.05

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life185.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-190.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity285.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss87.5%
Chance of 20% account loss87.5%
Chance of 30% account loss72.5%
Chance of 40% account loss51.5%
Chance of 50% account loss37.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)26.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)14.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)3.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,433
Avg Win$803
# Winners388
Sum Trade PL (losers)$303,881
Sum Trade PL (winners)$311,449
Num Months Winners52
# Losers212
% Winners64.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct883

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table100

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)85753.15
Avg Position Time (hrs)1429.22
Avg Trade Length59.60
Last Trade Ago619

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.80
Daily leverage (max)2.42

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta-0.09
Treynor Index-0.19

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-312.73
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.50
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats14.95
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats27.07
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.67
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.10
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.14
SD0.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.29
df78
t0.75
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.06
Sortino ratio0.47
Upside Potential Ratio2.30
Upside part of mean0.67
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms42
N negative terms37
N of observations79
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.46
Covariance-0.01
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error77
t(b)-1.28
p(b)0.90
t(a)1.01
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.03
SD0.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.07
df78
t0.18
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.83
Sortino ratio0.10
Upside Potential Ratio1.86
Upside part of mean0.61
Downside part of mean-0.58
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms42
N negative terms37
N of observations79
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.46
Covariance-0.01
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error77
t(b)-0.96
p(b)0.83
t(a)0.36
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.19
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
Mean0.09
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.22
df1736
t0.58
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.99
Sortino ratio0.32
Upside Potential Ratio8.05
Upside part of mean2.31
Downside part of mean-2.21
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms874
N negative terms863
N of observations1737
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error1735
t(b)-1.32
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.63
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.52
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.01
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df1736
t0.05
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.78
Sortino ratio0.03
Upside Potential Ratio7.66
Upside part of mean2.26
Downside part of mean-2.26
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms874
N negative terms863
N of observations1737
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error1735
t(b)-1.29
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.09
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.55
SD0.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.84
df130
t-0.60
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.93
Sortino ratio-1.13
Upside Potential Ratio7.27
Upside part of mean3.55
Downside part of mean-4.10
Upside SD0.44
Downside SD0.49
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.64
Mean of criterion-0.55
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.66
Covariance-0.06
r-0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.55
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.20
Mean Square Error0.40
DF error129
t(b)-3.21
p(b)0.67
t(a)-0.22
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.58
Treynor index (mean / b)1.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.20
Mean-0.77
SD0.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.16
df130
t-0.82
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.62
Sortino ratio-1.51
Upside Potential Ratio6.81
Upside part of mean3.46
Downside part of mean-4.23
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.51
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion-0.77
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.66
Covariance-0.06
r-0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.54
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.45
Mean Square Error0.41
DF error129
t(b)-3.17
p(b)0.67
t(a)-0.50
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.88
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.34
Treynor index (mean / b)1.42
Jensen alpha (a)-0.45
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations79
Minimum0.66
Quartile 10.94
Median1.01
Quartile 31.09
Maximum1.56
Mean of quarter 10.86
Mean of quarter 20.97
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.17
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.68
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.56
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.23
Number of observations1737
Minimum0.85
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low61
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high55
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.12
Median0.18
Quartile 30.42
Maximum0.61
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20.16
Mean of quarter 30.23
Mean of quarter 40.61
Inter Quartile Range0.30
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations42
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.67
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.40
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.66
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.82
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.48
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.61
Number of observations1
Minimum0.34
Quartile 10.34
Median0.34
Quartile 30.34
Maximum0.34
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-434354976
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)532
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.26
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.05
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.70
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.62
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.52
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.56
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-6.29

Trading record

Placed 2245 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AFRM short100Nov 21, 2024Dec 31, 2024$540
CVNA short125Aug 1, 2024Dec 2, 2024($11,351)
NVDA short65Nov 6, 2024Nov 21, 2024$160
ENPH short200Jul 11, 2024Sep 26, 2024($187)
DDOG short50Jul 25, 2024Sep 17, 2024$449
ABNB short100Jun 26, 2024Aug 2, 2024$2,300
NVDS long225Apr 25, 2024Aug 1, 2024($5,519)
RL short50Jul 16, 2024Jul 25, 2024$471
QQQ short40Mar 18, 2024Jul 16, 2024($1,858)
IWM short55Apr 16, 2024Jul 15, 2024($738)
SMH short65Mar 19, 2024Jul 11, 2024($3,070)
MSFT short30May 1, 2024Jun 11, 2024($980)
SPY short30Mar 5, 2024May 24, 2024($465)
CVNA short65May 2, 2024May 22, 2024$202
DDOG short100Apr 9, 2024May 16, 2024$683
ENPH short200Feb 9, 2024May 2, 2024$3,428
DASH short85Feb 20, 2024May 2, 2024$1,031
XMMO short50Apr 30, 2024May 1, 2024$47
DJT long90Apr 1, 2024Apr 30, 2024$344
XLK short60Feb 6, 2024Apr 26, 2024$209
RUM long500Apr 19, 2024Apr 24, 2024$68
LI short400Feb 5, 2024Apr 16, 2024$1,083
SQQQ long350Apr 2, 2024Apr 10, 2024$33
NVDS long80Mar 19, 2024Apr 9, 2024$424
TAL short650Feb 5, 2024Apr 9, 2024$43
ZS short30Mar 19, 2024Apr 2, 2024$268
DWAC long50Mar 19, 2024Mar 20, 2024$256
NVDS long250Mar 18, 2024Mar 19, 2024$200
RIVN long200Feb 5, 2024Mar 19, 2024($775)
TYRA long250Feb 5, 2024Feb 23, 2024$514

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.